BREAKOUT BOX 1: Ireland’s Mega‑Project Record – When Costs Run Away
← See the full piece on Marshall On Policy https://go.marshall.ie/LNG-bill-from-field-notes
Ireland’s track record on major capital projects raises an obvious question: how likely is it that a €900 million LNG reserve will stay within its projected cost envelope? Over the past 25 years, some of the State’s most significant infrastructure programmes – hospitals, transport systems, digital networks and administrative reforms – have exceeded their original budgets by wide margins, in some cases several‑fold. These overruns ultimately fall on the taxpayer: roughly 40% of total tax revenue comes directly from personal income taxes (or around 67% if you include the VAT charged on everyday spending). The examples below illustrate the pattern.
National Children’s Hospital • Original estimate: ~€790–987m • Current projected cost: ~€2bn+ • Overrun: ~€1bn+ • Status: Under construction
National Broadband Plan (NBP) • Original estimate: ~€500m • Final contract cost: ~€3bn • Overrun: ~€2.5bn • Status: Ongoing rollout
Dublin Port Tunnel • Original estimate: ~€149m • Final cost: ~€789m • Overrun: ~€640m • Status: Completed
Luas (initial lines) • Original estimate: ~€300m • Final cost: >€700m • Overrun: ~€400m • Status: Completed
MetroLink / Dublin Metro • Spend to date: ~€180–€245m with no construction • Cost drift: from ~€3bn to ~€7–€12bn • Status: Still pre‑construction
National Motorway Programme • Original envelope: ~€5.6bn • Final cost: ~€16bn • Overrun: ~€10bn • Status: Completed
PPARS (HSE payroll/HR IT system) • Spend: ~€231m • Outcome: Abandoned
E‑voting machines • Spend: ~€54.6m • Outcome: Scrapped
Public Services Card (PSC) • Spend: ~€70m+ • Outcome: Scope curtailed
Thornton Hall prison project • Spend: ~€30m • Outcome: Largely unused
Decentralisation Programme • Spend: ~€100m • Outcome: Abandoned
History may not repeat, but in Irish capital projects it usually rhymes.
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